[Analysis: Delivery Brand Transfer to Warehouse Leads to Expected Increase in Social Inventory of Lead Ingots]

SMM reported on September 15: According to SMM, as of September 15, the total social inventory of lead ingots across five locations reached 68,900 mt, an increase of 1,200 mt from September 8; and an increase of 1,900 mt from September 11.

Today is the delivery day for the SHFE lead 2509 contract. Over the weekend, delivery brand supplies gradually arrived at the warehouses, leading to an expected increase in social inventory. Based on the open interest of the current SHFE lead 2509 contract, the estimated lead ingot delivery volume is around 20,000 mt, nearly double that of the 2508 contract last month. However, compared to the existing stock of nearly 70,000 mt in the delivery warehouses, there is more than enough to complete this delivery. Additionally, as we enter mid-to-late September, with only half a month left until the National Day holiday, downstream enterprises will traditionally stockpile lead ingots according to their needs before the holiday. Some enterprises have already started small-scale stockpiling last week. Coupled with the ongoing maintenance status of primary and secondary lead enterprises, it is expected that after the delivery, the social inventory of lead ingots will pull back.

Data Source Statement: Apart from publicly available information, other data are derived from public information, market communication, and based on SMM's internal database model, processed by SMM for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.